Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
33 0x331d…8846 weather 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$876 (+46%) realized +$876 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%33W / 44L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$646
7 days+$646
14 days+$646
30 days+$811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$811
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +61.0% +45.7% 44% 38% +26.4%
≤30d 77 +58.7% +43.6% 43% 36% +28.7%
≤90d 77 +58.7% +43.6% 43% 36% +28.7%
all 77 +58.7% +43.6% 43% 36% +28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.6% 36% +28.7%
10% +29.8% 32% +16.4%
15% +17.3% 30% +5.1%
20% +5.8% 30% -5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late +72% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$3 · ×8.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.3 per $1 lost it wins $6.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$876
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses33 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage23d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $31 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 Jun 27 $109 +$102 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $21 +$17 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 −$11 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $18 +$16 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $32 +$25 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $24 +$13 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $4 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 +$94 +1799%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 −$4 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $6 +$3 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 −$3 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $24 −$14 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 −$7 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $274 +$92 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $8 −$4 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $177 +$38 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $3 +$11 +380%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $174 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $11 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $0 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $21 +$47 +226%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? Jun 27 $21 +$39 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $101 +$28 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 −$6 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 27? Jun 26 $6 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $41 −$10 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $151 +$142 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $29 −$7 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $21 −$12 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $74 +$63 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $21 −$4 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $13 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 −$3 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 −$14 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$14 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 52¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 54¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 SELL Yes 100¢ $210 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27? SELL No 99¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 BUY Yes 7¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 53¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 23¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 51¢ $14 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 41¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 45¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? SELL Yes 56¢ $27 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? SELL No 74¢ $57 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 44¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 2¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 12¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 39¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 40¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 18¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 3¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 76¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? SELL Yes 43¢ $12 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 272 history records