Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x331e…458c sports 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate61%83W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$21
sports 36% −$17
world 5% +$11
crypto 4% +$1
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -6.7% -15.6% 83% 17% -8.4%
≤30d 42 -8.2% -16.9% 79% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 135 -12.1% -20.4% 61% 28% -8.9%
all 135 -12.1% -20.4% 61% 28% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 28% -8.9%
10% -28.0% 19% -17.6%
15% -35.0% 15% -25.6%
20% -41.4% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses83 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)135 / 144
History coverage86d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iraq win the World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh - Completed match? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iraq be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 50¢ 57¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+15%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh Jun 25 $395 +$1 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 $0 -44%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan - Completed match? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $300 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $302 +$12 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $300 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $13 −$11 -84%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh - Completed match? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complet Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka - Completed match? Jun 16 $3 $0 -0%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies - Completed mat Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Hampshire - Completed match? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex - Completed match? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex - Who wins the toss? May 30 $1 +$1 +103%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India - Completed matc May 30 $1 $0 -1%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $2 −$1 -99%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $2 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $27 +$1 +4%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $1 $0 -1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 19 $1 $0 -0%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $25 +$5 +18%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $2 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh SELL India 100¢ $196 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY India 99¢ $194 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh SELL India 99¢ $200 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY India 100¢ $200 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY India 95¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 99¢ $99 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh - Completed match? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 47h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan - Completed match? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $314 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 2d
Will Iraq be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq win the World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $111 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $100 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.96 · official $14.96 (match) · 326 history records