Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

33 0x331f…923d other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$952 (+14%) realized +$1,251 · open −$299

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip

Net edge+37%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$597per market

Trades / day4.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$4,514now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+48.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+64.2%	+48.5%	100%	100%	+44.2%
≤30d	3	+64.2%	+48.5%	100%	100%	+44.2%
≤90d	3	+64.2%	+48.5%	100%	100%	+44.2%
all	3	+64.2%	+48.5%	100%	100%	+44.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+48.5%	100%	+44.2%
10%	+34.3%	100%	+30.4%
15%	+21.3%	100%	+17.8%
20%	+9.4%	67%	+6.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 74% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +59% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +64% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$323 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$4,514

Realized+$1,251

Unrealized−$299

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions8

Markets (closed)3 / 11

History coverage6d

Avg bet$597

Trades / day4.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$1,312	$1,580	+$268 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$1,304	$1,092	−$212 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	13¢	$530	$628	+$98 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	7¢	$945	$626	−$320 (-34%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	12¢	$465	$588	+$122 (+26%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Tunisia	62¢	1¢	$62	$1	−$61 (-98%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	No	24¢	0¢	$167	$0	−$167 (-100%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$28	$0	−$28 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$145	+$55	+38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1,286	+$714	+56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$201	+$199	+99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	14¢	$14	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	15¢	$15	1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$29	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	18¢	$18	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	17¢	$1	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	17¢	$16	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	34¢	$34	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	35¢	$36	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	34¢	$35	1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Tunisia	62¢	$63	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	77¢	$39	12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	74¢	$7	12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	74¢	$81	12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$17	12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	55¢	$550	26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	73¢	$736	26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	50¢	$102	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	49¢	$99	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$83	2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$478	4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$544	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$887	5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1,345	5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1,337	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,514.10 · official $4,524.90 (match) · 34 history records