Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:19:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
33 0x332a…c9a2 other 282 markets active 2h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,136 (+2%) realized +$5,145 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%117W / 161L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$733per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1,444est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28,209
7 days−$14,033
14 days−$17,795
30 days−$11,513
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$14,068
other 34% +$15,659
politics 3% +$2,004
culture 1% +$376
finance 0% −$651
crypto 0% +$154
world 0% +$918
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -11.3% -19.7% 43% 43% -23.3%
≤30d 50 -8.7% -17.4% 40% 40% -19.9%
≤90d 104 -15.3% -23.4% 37% 36% -4.2%
all 278 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 35% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 35% -7.6%
10% -21.2% 27% -16.4%
15% -28.9% 22% -24.5%
20% -35.8% 18% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$701 vs −$485 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized+$5,145
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses117 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,444
Open positions4
Markets (closed)278 / 282
History coverage601d
Avg bet$733
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 54¢ 52¢ $136 $130 −$6 (-4%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $68 $66 −$2 (-3%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes $42 $49 +$7 (+17%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $46 $38 −$8 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $12,111 −$11,897 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3,934 +$1,886 +48%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $10,202 −$10,147 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $8,207 −$8,050 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $3,216 −$3,216 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $6,221 −$6,179 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1,266 −$1,237 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $5,512 +$1,747 +32%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4,209 +$491 +12%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $2,492 +$8,678 +348%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,173 −$3,173 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $5,389 +$9,996 +186%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $356 +$659 +185%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +17%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $264 −$260 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $3,907 −$3,863 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,624 −$2,593 -99%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $12,464 +$12,213 +98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5,941 +$2,241 +38%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,319 −$1,319 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,440 −$3,440 -100%
ITF Gyula: Mate Valkusz vs Leyton Rivera Jun 17 $38 −$37 -98%
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab Jun 17 $747 −$688 -92%
ITF Gyula: Adam Jilly vs Aron Janos Major Jun 17 $16 +$4 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $173 +$426 +247%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $67 +$434 +650%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $131 −$55 -42%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $814 −$167 -21%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $43 −$42 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $114 +$18 +16%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $80 +$13 +16%
Will Lithuania win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $120 +$16 +14%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $81 −$80 -100%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $63 +$20 +31%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $130 +$120 +92%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $124 −$9 -7%
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $24 −$23 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $1,815 +$6,206 +342%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 11¢ $47 2h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes $43 2h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 17¢ $70 2h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 54¢ $138 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 40¢ $12,111 13h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 43¢ $1,375 36h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 43¢ $1 36h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 43¢ $1 36h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 43¢ $3 36h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 43¢ $2 36h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 43¢ $2 36h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 43¢ $11 36h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 43¢ $124 36h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 43¢ $124 36h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 43¢ $5,237 36h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 44¢ $3,322 36h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $8,207 41h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $3,216 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2,474 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $22 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1,194 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1,266 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $362 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2,170 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $2,385 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $1,825 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $3,173 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $4,578 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $18 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.99 · official $282.99 (match) · 2356 history records