Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x332a…d155 other 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$174 (-44%) realized −$174 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate16%14W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$103
14 days−$104
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$85
sports 16% −$39
crypto 14% −$16
world 10% −$21
weather 4% −$16
politics 1% −$3
culture 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -53.6% -58.0% 9% 6% -52.7%
≤30d 38 -58.5% -62.5% 8% 5% -52.9%
≤90d 39 -58.0% -62.0% 8% 5% -52.8%
all 86 -48.3% -53.3% 16% 15% -53.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.3% 15% -53.1%
10% -57.7% 14% -57.6%
15% -61.8% 12% -61.7%
20% -65.6% 12% -65.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$174
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses14 / 72
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)86 / 93
History coverage356d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 34¢ 61¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+80%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $41 −$7 -16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +170%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Gran May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16? Mar 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 16 $9 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $35 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 15¢ $1 4d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $7 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $5 6d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $14 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6d
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.10 · official $12.11 (match) · 204 history records