Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:23:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
33 0x332b…6192 politics 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$22 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$14
other 31% −$10
world 7% $0
sports 6% −$6
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.4% -14.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 22 -20.8% -28.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 61 -11.8% -20.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 61 -11.8% -20.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -27.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -34.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -41.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 61
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)61 / 65
History coverage325d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $239 $238 −$0 (-0%)
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -18%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2 $0 -21%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $170 $0 -0%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 09 $160 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2 $0 -19%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2 $0 -16%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2 $0 -19%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga sea May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2 $0 -17%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $160 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $3 $0 -11%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $319 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $339 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1 $0 -29%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1 $0 -37%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $2 $0 -14%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $19 −$1 -6%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $192 −$1 -1%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $269 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $2 $0 -18%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $239 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 28 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $209 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $186 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will Dodi Lukebakio be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seas Apr 12 $160 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $3 $0 -8%
Will Chellie Pingree be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Apr 11 $170 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 5h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 14h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 17h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 24h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 27h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 30h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 31h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 37h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 37h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $170 13d
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $160 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.39 · official $239.39 (match) · 217 history records