Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x332d…193f other 81 markets active 7h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-12%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%18W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$76
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$24
sports 32% −$24
crypto 4% −$30
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -22.3% -29.7% 23% 23% -19.8%
≤30d 81 -26.1% -33.2% 22% 22% -21.3%
≤90d 81 -26.1% -33.2% 22% 22% -21.3%
all 81 -26.1% -33.2% 22% 22% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 22% -21.3%
10% -39.6% 22% -28.8%
15% -45.4% 22% -35.7%
20% -50.7% 22% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$7 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses18 / 63
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage7d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$21 +140%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$57 +1116%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +139%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$20 +100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 +$31 +596%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $15 7h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $10 7h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $5 8h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 8h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 8h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 46h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $9 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records