Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:34:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x332e…0747 sports 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$66 (+2%) realized +$48 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%70W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days−$54
14 days+$42
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$27
other 3% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -5.1% -14.1% 54% 54% -12.6%
≤30d 129 -0.7% -10.2% 54% 54% -8.3%
≤90d 129 -0.7% -10.2% 54% 54% -8.3%
all 129 -0.7% -10.2% 54% 54% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 54% -8.3%
10% -18.8% 53% -17.0%
15% -26.6% 46% -25.1%
20% -33.8% 35% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses70 / 59
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions7
Markets (closed)129 / 137
History coverage13d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 81¢ $30 $58 +$28 (+94%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner REKONIX 58¢ 92¢ $29 $47 +$17 (+59%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs FOKUS 55¢ 69¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+26%)
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Clutchain 64¢ 62¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs TDK 45¢ 43¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Clutchain 62¢ 56¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner TDK 47¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 Jun 20 $30 +$29 +96%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball: O/U 182.5 Jun 19 $14 +$13 +89%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $30 +$23 +76%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $30 +$12 +40%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 19 $30 +$10 +34%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $30 +$16 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -95%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $30 +$15 +50%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $61 −$10 -16%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$23 +76%
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$15 +50%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $61 +$25 +41%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$27 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$29 +97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $30 +$42 +140%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 +$10 +32%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $30 +$11 +36%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $27 +$27 +101%
Quimsa vs. Gimnasia: O/U 154.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $30 −$2 -7%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $29 −$29 -99%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$29 +97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $29 +$8 +27%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 +$10 +34%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 +$7 +23%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$20 +67%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $30 +$20 +65%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$46 +150%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$14 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 64¢ $30 19m
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner BUY Clutchain 62¢ $30 23m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 58¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 55¢ $30 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 47¢ $30 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $30 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $30 9h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 11h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 15h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 15h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $30 15h
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball: O/U 182.5 BUY Under 52¢ $14 16h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 56¢ $30 20h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Zero Tenacity 74¢ $30 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $30 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $30 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $31 25h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $30 26h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $30 27h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 65¢ $30 27h
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner BUY ShindeN 66¢ $30 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $30 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 36h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 59¢ $30 36h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $30 36h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $30 36h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 35¢ $31 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.05 · official $226.07 (match) · 223 history records