Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:36:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3333…6bc6 sports 221 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$616 (-12%) realized −$624 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%94W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$48
14 days−$51
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$72
other 19% −$445
crypto 8% −$132
world 0% −$11
politics 0% −$10
culture 0% −$10
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -83.4% -85.0% 0% 0% -89.1%
≤30d 16 -63.3% -66.8% 6% 6% -54.5%
≤90d 209 -16.0% -24.0% 42% 41% -24.7%
all 216 -10.8% -19.3% 44% 43% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 43% -21.4%
10% -27.0% 41% -28.9%
15% -34.1% 37% -35.8%
20% -40.5% 28% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$624
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses94 / 122
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions5
Markets (closed)216 / 221
History coverage99d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+66%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -34%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $17 −$10 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $55 −$28 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $83 −$42 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $27 −$17 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $31 +$70 +223%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $31 −$24 -78%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $17 −$16 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $30 −$29 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 18 $69 −$41 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $37 −$35 -96%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $15 +$17 +112%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $17 −$16 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $31 −$11 -35%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) May 17 $15 +$32 +206%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 16 $15 +$16 +103%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 16 $15 +$26 +172%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 15 $15 +$9 +57%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) May 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $21 +$20 +94%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 14 $15 +$9 +59%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 14 $15 +$7 +44%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 14 $10 −$1 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 13 $17 +$13 +76%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $18 −$6 -33%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 13 $22 +$21 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $35 +$11 +30%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $2 −$2 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 10 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 10 $25 −$15 -60%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 09 $15 +$19 +123%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 09 $15 −$6 -36%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 09 $15 +$13 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $36 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 2h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 35¢ $15 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 12d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $30 18d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 22d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $27 22d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $17 23d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 23d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 23d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $41 23d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 23d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $55 23d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $83 24d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $84 24d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 24d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 25d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 25d
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr BUY Yes 8¢ $15 27d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 27d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 29d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 29d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 32d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 32d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 32d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.72 · official $88.72 (match) · 518 history records