Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
33 0x3335…309e world 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,142 (+10%) realized +$6,143 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate37%56W / 95L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$360
14 days−$497
30 days+$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 58% −$509
world 25% +$7,425
sports 12% −$983
other 5% +$502
politics 0% −$189
culture 0% −$23
economics 0% −$110
crypto 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 60% 50% -35.7%
≤30d 45 +67.8% +51.8% 38% 36% -28.2%
≤90d 110 +34.0% +21.2% 37% 31% -3.6%
all 151 +21.5% +9.9% 37% 29% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 29% -3.4%
10% -0.6% 22% -12.7%
15% -10.2% 15% -21.1%
20% -19.0% 14% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$105 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$6,143
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses56 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 155
History coverage103d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $158 $157 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $93 +$29 +31%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Jun 19 $2 +$1 +32%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 19 $24 +$13 +52%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $100 −$76 -76%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $79 +$14 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $49 +$4 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $440 −$390 -88%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $198 −$1 -1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $200 +$49 +24%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $136 −$136 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $744 −$744 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5 $0 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5 $0 -8%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 02 $10 −$2 -18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 02 $78 −$78 -100%
Chisinau: Andrej Nedic vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Jun 02 $172 −$172 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 02 $243 −$243 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $368 −$368 -100%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Harriet Dart Jun 02 $16 +$21 +126%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$15 -30%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $205 +$123 +60%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $122 +$21 +17%
Little Rock: Enzo Aguiard vs Andre Ilagan May 29 $38 +$19 +51%
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Aidan Mayo May 29 $109 −$70 -65%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia end in a draw? May 29 $44 +$64 +145%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $83 −$39 -47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $673 −$673 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $161 −$132 -82%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1,326 +$482 +36%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $300 −$138 -46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $210 −$107 -51%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $164 +$26 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $170 −$141 -83%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $50 +$2,567 +5135%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $20 +$799 +3996%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 25 $305 −$305 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 25 $10 −$9 -82%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 25 $35 −$5 -15%
Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 25 $117 +$59 +51%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $94 +$12 +13%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $21 −$1 -6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nuno Borges vs Rafael Jodar May 08 $300 +$68 +23%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 07 $358 +$192 +54%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katerina Siniakova vs Anna Kalinskaya May 07 $225 +$133 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY $0 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $121 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $121 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND SELL $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND SELL $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND SELL $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $36 1h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 65¢ $24 3h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 13¢ $24 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $93 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $93 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $79 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $100 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY $0 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in BUY $54 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 62¢ $53 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $56 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $49 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $49 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $192 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $192 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $248 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $249 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.31 · official $157.36 (match) · 1058 history records