Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
33 0x3335…fbd6 other 57 markets active 8h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,471 (+10%) realized +$1,471 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%20W / 37L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit2%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$387
7 days−$1,024
14 days−$203
30 days+$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$1,618
politics 1% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -44.4% -49.7% 17% 17% -56.0%
≤30d 32 +0.9% -8.7% 31% 31% -5.0%
≤90d 47 +11.2% +0.6% 34% 34% -2.9%
all 57 +16.1% +5.0% 35% 35% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 35% -0.6%
10% -5.0% 35% -10.1%
15% -14.2% 35% -18.8%
20% -22.6% 35% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$539 vs −$252 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,471
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses20 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage109d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit2%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $290 +$678 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $469 −$469 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $210 −$201 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $416 +$972 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $416 −$416 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $346 +$807 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $328 +$766 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $328 −$328 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $328 −$328 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $332 +$775 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $332 −$332 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $315 +$735 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $315 −$315 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $315 −$315 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $183 +$427 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $492 +$626 +127%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $261 −$261 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $261 −$261 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $244 +$570 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $263 +$615 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $219 +$511 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $219 −$219 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $4 +$8 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $205 +$479 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $172 −$165 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 10 $272 −$272 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $226 +$527 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $118 +$275 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $169 +$393 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 22 $193 +$450 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 22 $195 −$195 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $101 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $189 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $12 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $21 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $9 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $1 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $4 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $5 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $26 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $120 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $8 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $0 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $41 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $0 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $0 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $16 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $4 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $19 17h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $310 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $23 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $16 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $30 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $30 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $30 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $30 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $30 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $150 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 544 history records