Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3339…3492 sports 384 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$439 (+5%) realized +$444 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%203W / 157L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$539
14 days+$495
30 days+$561
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$877
other 12% +$32
world 10% −$102
crypto 6% −$253
culture 2% −$11
finance 1% +$5
tech 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +29.0% +16.7% 66% 66% +23.7%
≤30d 293 +1.3% -8.3% 55% 51% -2.9%
≤90d 360 -0.6% -10.1% 56% 49% -3.7%
all 360 -0.6% -10.1% 56% 49% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 49% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 42% -12.9%
15% -26.6% 36% -21.3%
20% -33.8% 30% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$362
Realized+$444
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses203 / 157
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions19
Markets (closed)360 / 384
History coverage43d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $76 $80 +$4 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 52¢ $54 $51 −$3 (-6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+4%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 40¢ 38¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-4%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 50¢ 48¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-5%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 56¢ 52¢ $34 $31 −$3 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-20%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 40¢ $14 $15 +$2 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+87%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 63¢ 64¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+38%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots Jun 26 $5 +$2 +44%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $29 +$10 +35%
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Jun 26 $5 +$4 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $35 +$21 +62%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $68 +$78 +114%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 25 $35 −$34 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $44 −$14 -33%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $24 +$18 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $34 +$21 +60%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $45 +$6 +14%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $34 +$43 +124%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $21 +$18 +90%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $24 +$17 +70%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $24 −$23 -99%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $35 −$34 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $35 −$34 -99%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $8 −$1 -16%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $22 +$21 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $34 +$21 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $35 +$21 +62%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $22 +$17 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $35 +$57 +165%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 23 $21 −$21 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $35 −$34 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $35 −$34 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $35 +$32 +93%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $35 +$21 +62%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $34 +$38 +114%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $35 +$27 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $34 −$34 -99%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $8 +$17 +206%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $27 +$19 +70%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $12 +$15 +119%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $35 +$27 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $12 +$8 +62%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $35 +$35 +101%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $34 +$43 +124%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $9 −$8 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $35 −$34 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $36 +$70 +197%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $22 +$24 +114%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $26 +$20 +76%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $17 +$21 +119%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $12 −$12 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $31 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 40¢ $35 14m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 50¢ $35 14m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $39 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise SELL Dembele 95¢ $9 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY No 69¢ $5 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $4 5h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $20 7h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $5 8h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $5 23h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $35 30h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 56¢ $34 30h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 46¢ $34 30h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 46¢ $35 30h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $35 30h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $29 40h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $10 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 45¢ $33 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $10 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $21 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $24 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $24 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $24 2d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 44¢ $34 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $34 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $35 2d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $35 2d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $35 2d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $3 2d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.30 · official $362.30 (match) · 1092 history records