Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:04:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x333a…bd76 world 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,889 (-25%) realized −$2,517 · open −$372
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%16W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$224
14 days−$242
30 days−$1,923
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$2,981
other 18% −$286
sports 9% +$370
crypto 1% −$66
economics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -22.6% -30.0% 19% 19% +6.4%
≤30d 54 +6.7% -3.5% 20% 20% -28.7%
≤90d 80 -21.0% -28.5% 16% 16% -33.3%
all 93 -24.7% -31.9% 17% 16% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 16% -32.1%
10% -38.4% 15% -38.6%
15% -44.4% 14% -44.5%
20% -49.8% 12% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$74 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$460
Realized−$2,517
Unrealized−$372
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses16 / 77
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions7
Markets (closed)93 / 100
History coverage371d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $60 $148 +$88 (+146%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $104 $97 −$7 (-7%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $68 $60 −$8 (-12%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $100 $14 −$86 (-86%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $370 $1 −$369 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $111 +$463 +419%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $0 $0 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 20 $276 −$276 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 −$5 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $41 −$7 -16%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $53 −$5 -9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 +$100 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $89 −$87 -98%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $100 −$12 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,068 +$459 +43%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $220 −$121 -55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$379 +1843%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 +$65 +129%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $60 +$442 +736%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $527 −$527 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $212 −$212 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $110 −$110 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $196 −$196 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 03 $100 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $83 −$83 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $297 +$642 +216%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $479 −$470 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $1,320 −$644 -49%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $398 +$143 +36%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $110 −$52 -47%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 26 $350 −$350 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $23 −$10 -43%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $610 −$610 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $100 +$51 +51%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $87 32m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $17 56m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $574 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $49 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 12¢ $0 2h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $120 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $73 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $40 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $137 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $459.55 · official $459.55 (match) · 327 history records