Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:51:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
33 0x333a…6376 politics 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$104 (-5%) realized −$110 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate67%28W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$115
14 days+$115
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$253
politics 22% +$72
other 10% +$80
world 6% +$18
weather 5% +$5
tech 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +91.7% +73.5% 60% 60% +88.7%
≤30d 5 +91.7% +73.5% 60% 60% +88.7%
≤90d 8 +37.9% +24.8% 50% 50% +21.5%
all 42 +15.9% +4.9% 67% 57% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 57% -12.8%
10% -5.2% 43% -21.1%
15% -14.3% 36% -28.8%
20% -22.7% 24% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$42 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses28 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage635d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $30 $35 +$6 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 +$78 +509%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $26 +$11 +44%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 26 $44 +$47 +106%
Pacers vs. Pistons Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Knicks Apr 14 $167 +$74 +44%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Kings vs. Cavaliers Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Suns vs. Hawks Jan 24 $110 −$60 -54%
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Michigan rally on Octob Oct 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Tesla" during Michigan rally on October 18? Oct 19 $10 −$10 -100%
WNBA Finals: Lynx vs. Liberty Game 4 Oct 19 $428 −$292 -68%
Mets vs. Dodgers - Game 5 Oct 19 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Trump say "Tren de Aragua" during Michigan rally on October 18? Oct 19 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Trump say "JD Vance" during Michigan rally on October 18? Oct 19 $10 +$8 +77%
Will Trump say "Reagan" during Michigan rally on October 18? Oct 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Trump say "trans" during Michigan rally on October 18? Oct 19 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Trump say "tampon" during Michigan rally on October 18? Oct 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Trump say "hurricane" 2 or more times during Michigan rally on Oc Oct 19 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Trump say "American dream" 3 or more times during Michigan rally Oct 19 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during Michigan rally on October Oct 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Trump say "million" 10 or more times during Michigan rally on Oct Oct 19 $10 +$15 +154%
Will Trump say "Kamala" 30 or more times during Michigan rally on Octo Oct 19 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Trump say "border" 35 or more times during Michigan rally on Octo Oct 19 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "border" 25 or more times during Michigan rally on Octo Oct 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Trump say "weave" during Michigan rally on October 18? Oct 19 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Trump say "insane asylum" during Michigan rally on October 18? Oct 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Trump say "Elon" during Michigan rally on October 18? Oct 19 $44 +$4 +9%
Will Duke beat Florida State? Oct 19 $28 +$12 +45%
Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 11-18? Oct 18 $283 +$21 +7%
Broncos vs. Saints Oct 18 $271 +$12 +4%
Yankees vs. Guardians - Game 3 Oct 18 $30 +$81 +270%
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? Oct 17 $150 +$18 +12%
WNBA Finals: Lynx vs. Liberty Game 3 Oct 17 $104 +$69 +66%
September temperature increase by more than 1.40°C? Oct 16 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala say "black" during her Nevada speech? Oct 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Tampon" during the debate? Oct 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Kamala say "border" 3+ times during her Nevada speech? Sep 30 $13 +$4 +32%
Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill? Sep 29 $30 +$13 +43%
Will SK win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? Sep 29 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Penn St. beat Illinois? Sep 29 $20 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 43m
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $37 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 2h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $13 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 8¢ $70 72d
Kings vs. Cavaliers BUY Kings 16¢ $5 153d
Suns vs. Hawks BUY Suns 27¢ $20 153d
Suns vs. Hawks BUY Suns 34¢ $40 153d
Suns vs. Hawks SELL Hawks 67¢ $91 153d
Suns vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 37¢ $50 153d
Suns vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 28¢ $30 159d
Suns vs. Knicks SELL Suns 61¢ $144 159d
Suns vs. Knicks BUY Suns 22¢ $30 159d
Suns vs. Knicks BUY Suns 38¢ $38 159d
Pacers vs. Pistons BUY Pacers 3¢ $1 159d
Suns vs. Knicks SELL Suns 56¢ $97 159d
Suns vs. Knicks BUY Suns 40¢ $69 159d
WNBA Finals: Lynx vs. Liberty Game 4 BUY Liberty 48¢ $118 615d
WNBA Finals: Lynx vs. Liberty Game 4 BUY Liberty 58¢ $200 615d
WNBA Finals: Lynx vs. Liberty Game 4 SELL Lynx 40¢ $12 615d
WNBA Finals: Lynx vs. Liberty Game 4 SELL Liberty 68¢ $124 615d
WNBA Finals: Lynx vs. Liberty Game 4 BUY Lynx 32¢ $10 615d
Will Trump say "Tren de Aragua" during Michigan rally on October 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 615d
Will Trump say "JD Vance" during Michigan rally on October 18? SELL No 99¢ $18 615d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.42 · official $35.42 (match) · 102 history records