Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x333d…e8b7 sports 745 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$251 (-3%) realized −$251 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%289W / 453L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day76.3pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$220
14 days−$173
30 days−$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$618
world 22% −$47
politics 12% −$84
economics 9% −$39
other 3% −$5
weather 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -10.6% -19.1% 27% 25% -15.3%
≤30d 575 -10.8% -19.3% 41% 38% -15.0%
≤90d 742 -15.6% -23.7% 39% 36% -18.9%
all 742 -15.6% -23.7% 39% 36% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 36% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 33% -26.6%
15% -37.6% 29% -33.7%
20% -43.8% 25% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses289 / 453
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions3
Markets (closed)742 / 745
History coverage34d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day76.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 742 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? No 62¢ 66¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 61¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 364 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $49 −$3 -6%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $2 $0 -10%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $6 −$3 -45%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $159 −$2 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 21 $200 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $701 −$35 -5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 21 $54 −$5 -10%
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $117 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $148 −$4 -3%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 20 $193 −$18 -9%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 20 $92 −$55 -60%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 20 $158 −$11 -7%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $98 −$4 -4%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 20 $116 −$4 -3%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 19 $96 +$2 +2%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 19 $76 −$6 -8%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 19 $309 −$7 -2%
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Jun 19 $178 −$7 -4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 19 $302 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 18 $108 −$24 -23%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 −$3 -7%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 18 $3 $0 -5%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $7 −$2 -24%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 18 $9 −$2 -21%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $7 +$4 +67%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 +$8 +123%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $6 +$1 +14%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $7 +$3 +53%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $3 +$4 +109%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $6 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $6 +$4 +58%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $7 +$5 +78%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 +$2 +54%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$6 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$5 +51%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $7 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 24¢ $46 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $49 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $2 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $6 3h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 79¢ $157 5h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 79¢ $159 5h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 59¢ $67 6h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 60¢ $49 6h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 62¢ $124 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $177 11h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 11h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $192 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 2¢ $3 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $5 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $165 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $193 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 25¢ $46 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 26¢ $3 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 27¢ $54 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 98¢ $195 25h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 98¢ $196 25h
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 98¢ $117 25h
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $117 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 2873 history records