Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
33 0x3341…283e world 45 markets active 2d ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+3%) realized +$40 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$22
world 32% +$43
politics 14% −$10
sports 8% +$25
crypto 1% −$6
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -57.4% -61.5% 29% 29% -46.5%
≤30d 8 -62.5% -66.1% 25% 25% -48.9%
≤90d 15 -27.8% -34.6% 53% 47% -4.8%
all 39 -16.6% -24.6% 56% 41% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 41% -5.6%
10% -31.8% 26% -14.6%
15% -38.4% 21% -22.9%
20% -44.4% 8% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)39 / 45
History coverage161d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $108 $112 +$3 (+3%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 28¢ $19 $33 +$13 (+68%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 88¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+28%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 61¢ 20¢ $40 $13 −$27 (-68%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 37¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 16 $11 +$2 +23%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 16 $5 +$2 +49%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 16 $37 +$2 +6%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $39 +$17 +43%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 03 $36 +$15 +43%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 19 $13 −$11 -89%
Will Keir Starmer say "Greenland" at the next Prime Minister's Questio Mar 19 $25 −$21 -83%
Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" at the next Prime Minister's Questions? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime M Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 17 $24 −$1 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 09 $30 +$6 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 06 $30 −$5 -18%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $48 +$1 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $48 +$13 +27%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $76 +$28 +37%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 25 $46 +$2 +5%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Question Jan 22 $3 +$3 +82%
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Mi Jan 22 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 21 $20 +$3 +16%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $5 +$1 +14%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Keir Starmer say "Healthcare" at the next Prime Minister's Questi Jan 14 $15 −$5 -35%
Will Keir Starmer say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at the next Pr Jan 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 13 $33 +$5 +15%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $20 +$3 +15%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $16 +$14 +87%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 09 $20 −$6 -28%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026? Jan 09 $4 −$1 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 5d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $14 5d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $35 5d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 18d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 18d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 20d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $0 20d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 23d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 23d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 23d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $27 23d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 32d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 32d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $5 32d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 32d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 66d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 66d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 66d
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? BUY No $1 66d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 66d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 70¢ $19 76d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 76d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 70¢ $20 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.58 · official $176.61 (match) · 195 history records