Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x3341…d7e4 sports 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,107 (+14%) realized +$2,053 · open +$54
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%49W / 39L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$898
7 days+$1,035
14 days+$678
30 days+$1,481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$632
other 46% +$1,357
crypto 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +128.9% +107.1% 75% 75% +100.4%
≤30d 27 +35.3% +22.4% 56% 52% +17.2%
≤90d 83 +6.9% -3.2% 54% 52% +3.6%
all 88 +7.1% -3.1% 56% 53% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 53% +3.8%
10% -12.4% 48% -6.1%
15% -20.8% 40% -15.2%
20% -28.6% 34% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$90 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$1,382
Realized+$2,053
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses49 / 39
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions9
Markets (closed)88 / 97
History coverage95d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $357 $345 −$12 (-3%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $253 $261 +$8 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $203 $190 −$13 (-6%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 42¢ $100 $160 +$60 (+60%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 56¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 26¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$298 +291%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$332 +325%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$268 +262%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 +$74 +180%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $152 +$121 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $152 +$142 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $172 +$188 +109%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $127 −$125 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $567 +$20 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $445 −$440 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $543 −$24 -4%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $465 +$243 +52%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $152 +$154 +101%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $305 +$373 +122%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $153 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $152 +$151 +99%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $152 +$148 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $152 +$174 +114%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $153 −$52 -34%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $264 −$100 -38%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $261 +$162 +62%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $202 +$120 +60%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $273 +$184 +67%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $791 +$229 +29%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $404 −$400 -99%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $227 +$126 +55%
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) May 09 $76 +$105 +137%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 09 $203 +$155 +76%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $202 +$101 +50%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $554 +$151 +27%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 05 $203 −$200 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 04 $148 −$147 -100%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-01? May 04 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-5.5) May 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) May 01 $22 +$21 +93%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $54 +$10 +18%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $36 +$18 +50%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $244 −$165 -68%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $500 +$204 +41%
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) Apr 25 $59 +$62 +105%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $60 −$41 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 3h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 32h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $41 2d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $364 5d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $259 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $152 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $152 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $172 7d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 53¢ $127 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 21¢ $248 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $445 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 25¢ $294 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 42¢ $199 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 42¢ $299 17d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $102 19d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $102 19d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $102 19d
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 65¢ $465 19d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 31¢ $51 20d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $152 21d
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 44¢ $152 23d
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $153 23d
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 44¢ $153 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,381.67 · official $1,381.69 (match) · 288 history records