Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3342…df4e crypto 616 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 255d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,385 (-6%) realized −$1,370 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate52%320W / 293L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$47
14 days−$561
30 days−$514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$200
politics 20% +$174
other 16% −$191
weather 12% −$179
world 11% +$219
finance 6% −$90
tech 2% +$62
economics 0% −$5
sports 0% −$17
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.3% -21.6% 38% 38% -16.9%
≤30d 53 -63.2% -66.7% 23% 13% -31.9%
≤90d 56 -44.4% -49.7% 27% 18% -18.6%
all 613 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 34% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 34% -10.3%
10% -20.3% 23% -18.9%
15% -28.0% 16% -26.7%
20% -35.0% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$1,370
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses320 / 293
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)613 / 616
History coverage255d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 613 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 33¢ 31¢ $67 $62 −$5 (-7%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $16 −$7 (-30%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Jun 24 $6 +$4 +60%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $427 −$13 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 +$9 +131%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $84 −$16 -19%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $152 −$126 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $10 −$4 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 14 $31 +$3 +9%
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by January 9? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President event Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1? Jun 14 $217 −$217 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $240 +$30 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $90 +$4 +4%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 13 $18 +$8 +41%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $91 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $236 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 2h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 33¢ $38 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 33¢ $19 3d
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos BUY Yes 2¢ $19 4d
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos BUY Yes 2¢ $4 4d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 5d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $13 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $57 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 30¢ $3 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $27 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 14¢ $6 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.70 · official $79.20 (match) · 3500 history records