Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x3344…cabc
world · 41 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$1,321 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,346 · open −$303
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$931
Realized+$1,346
Unrealized−$303
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions9
Markets (closed)32 / 41
History coverage27d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 9 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$766
7 days−$485
14 days+$138
30 days+$1,346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 45¢ 29¢ $728 $471 −$257 (-35%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 50¢ 58¢ $150 $176 +$26 (+17%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 60¢ 64¢ $141 $150 +$8 (+6%)
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $102 $65 −$37 (-37%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 29¢ 31¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $24 $13 −$11 (-47%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-46%)
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? No 6¢ 2¢ $35 $8 −$27 (-76%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+41%)
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? No 30¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $596 $0 −$596 (-100%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $142 +$108 +76%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $2,527 −$348 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$7 +29%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $246 +$64 +26%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $596 −$596 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $227 −$78 -34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $276 +$120 +44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $128 −$128 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $236 −$27 -11%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $98 −$19 -19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $295 −$105 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $275 +$35 +13%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 08 $132 −$83 -63%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $30 −$4 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $208 −$145 -70%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $525 +$451 +86%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $804 +$213 +26%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 04 $45 +$78 +176%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $40 +$544 +1375%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $713 −$429 -60%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $396 +$259 +66%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $169 −$120 -71%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $914 +$797 +87%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 25 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $231 +$1,093 +472%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $386 +$239 +62%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $500 −$440 -88%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 19 $150 +$15 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $200 −$12 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 91% +$925
sports 7% −$424
other 2% +$11
politics 0% +$544
finance 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 4m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $57 16m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $246 22m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $84 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $45 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $33 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $96 39m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $67 39m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $118 39m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $500 44m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 49m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $178 49m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $38 49m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $255 49m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 49m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 49m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 49m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 50m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 50m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $8 50m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 53m
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 11¢ $32 53m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 60¢ $911 54m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 63¢ $954 54m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 69¢ $700 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+61.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -7.0% -15.9% 44% 44% -15.3%
≤30d 32 +78.4% +61.4% 47% 44% +7.6%
≤90d 32 +78.4% +61.4% 47% 44% +7.6%
all 32 +78.4% +61.4% 47% 44% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.4% 44% +7.6%
10% +46.0% 41% -2.7%
15% +31.9% 31% -12.1%
20% +18.9% 28% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $931.18 · official $931.23 (match) · 536 history records