Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
33 0x3347…c9c2 crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$317 (+8%) realized +$317 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$238
other 11% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -17.0% -24.9% 57% 51% -6.0%
≤30d 37 -17.0% -24.9% 57% 51% -6.0%
≤90d 37 -17.0% -24.9% 57% 51% -6.0%
all 37 -17.0% -24.9% 57% 51% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 51% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 32% -15.0%
15% -38.7% 19% -23.2%
20% -44.7% 14% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$43 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$317
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $56 +$16 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $76 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $129 −$112 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $77 −$49 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $76 +$16 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $152 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $77 +$51 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $405 +$86 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $176 +$22 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $304 +$63 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $57 −$15 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $154 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $329 +$91 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $354 +$100 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $126 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$69 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $152 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$16 +49%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $213 +$81 +38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$86 -84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $220 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $13 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $9 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records