Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$0

7 days−$0

14 days−$0

30 days+$1,339

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	54¢	52¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-3%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$47	$0	−$47 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$4	$0	-9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	May 26	$50	+$1,339	+2678%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?	Apr 15	$150	−$121	-81%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 80% −$123

world 20% +$1,339

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	20¢	$4	2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	21¢	$4	2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	2h
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	BUY No	4¢	$50	17d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?	SELL Yes	5¢	$25	57d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$150	57d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+560.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-9.2%	-17.9%	0%	0%	-17.9%
≤30d	2	+995.4%	+891.1%	50%	50%	+1662.4%
≤90d	3	+630.3%	+560.7%	33%	33%	+846.4%
all	3	+630.3%	+560.7%	33%	33%	+846.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+560.7%	33%	+846.4%
10%	+497.5%	33%	+755.8%
15%	+439.8%	33%	+673.1%
20%	+386.8%	33%	+597.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.