Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
33 0x3350…757d crypto 1365 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,499 (-8%) realized −$5,493 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate30%436W / 1015L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$8,774
sports 1% −$142
other 0% −$32
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 -56.8% -60.9% 12% 12% -61.5%
≤30d 384 -32.3% -38.7% 30% 24% -30.9%
≤90d 1285 -34.3% -40.6% 30% 23% -26.1%
all 1451 -34.4% -40.6% 30% 23% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.6% 23% -25.9%
10% ← realistic here -46.3% 19% -33.0%
15% -51.5% 15% -39.4%
20% -56.3% 13% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$5,493
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses436 / 1015
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1451 / 1365
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1451 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs Netherlands (Game 1) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs Italy (Game 1) Jun 21 $5 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs Scotland (Game 1) Jun 21 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $188 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.50 · official $6.50 (match) · 3500 history records