Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3353…dd2d world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$8
other 35% +$1
sports 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 25% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 21 -0.0% -9.6% 24% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 21 -0.0% -9.6% 24% 0% -8.7%
all 41 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -8.6%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.46 per $1 lost it wins $4.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage470d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $50 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $45 +$1 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $52 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $74 +$7 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $46 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $46 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $49 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 30 $82 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 12 $15 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 22 $15 $0 -1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Black Bag' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $15 $0 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $14 $0 -0%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 14 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 12 $13 $0 +2%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $2 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $49 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $50 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $5 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $2 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $38 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $45 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $45 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $45 35h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $29 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $23 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $45 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records