Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:59:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3355…dd2f sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,241 (-18%) realized −$6,061 · open −$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,065per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$167est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$8,792now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$940
7 days−$6,340
14 days−$6,341
30 days−$6,341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$3,340
sports 42% −$3,180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 43% -32.8%
≤30d 32 -9.9% -18.5% 41% 38% -32.8%
≤90d 32 -9.9% -18.5% 41% 38% -32.8%
all 32 -9.9% -18.5% 41% 38% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 38% -32.8%
10% -26.3% 38% -39.2%
15% -33.4% 34% -45.1%
20% -39.9% 22% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$1,132) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$451 vs −$642 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$8,792
Realized−$6,061
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$167
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1,065
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 94¢ 93¢ $8,972 $8,792 −$180 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $101 +$51 +50%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $230 +$520 +226%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $363 +$515 +142%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,015 +$1,025 +101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $135 −$133 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $1,027 +$413 +40%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,666 +$199 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,016 −$2,016 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $600 +$367 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,201 −$1,201 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $281 −$80 -29%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,960 −$1,960 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $167 −$163 -98%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 17 $824 −$817 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,413 −$1,411 -100%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 17 $128 −$127 -99%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $299 +$149 +50%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $541 +$459 +85%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $171 +$49 +29%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $980 −$227 -23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $495 −$482 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $313 +$504 +161%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,451 −$1,714 -70%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 15 $576 −$576 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,140 −$1,132 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2,624 +$1,254 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $266 +$356 +134%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 08 $6 $0 -4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $6 $0 -4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $256 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $17 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $413 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $17 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $83 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $103 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $17 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $19 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $3,332 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $3,801 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $110 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $17 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $164 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $18 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $169 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $34 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $84 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $17 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $307 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 30¢ $230 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 49¢ $1,015 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 71¢ $135 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 71¢ $752 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 70¢ $275 5h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 66¢ $101 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 40¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $363 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 96¢ $275 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $17 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $489 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,792.17 · official $8,792.17 (match) · 117 history records