Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3358…95e1 other 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 224L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$20
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$40
sports 22% −$15
politics 9% −$8
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage130d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $124 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $328 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $199 −$1 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $277 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $336 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $385 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $202 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $476 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $433 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $308 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $365 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $243 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $493 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $623 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $143 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $303 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $175 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $289 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 3h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 8h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 10h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 10h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 12h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 13h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 15h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 16h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 18h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 19h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 21h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 22h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 23h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $48 26h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $48 28h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 32h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 33h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $14 41h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $14 43h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 44h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 47h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 47h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1345 history records