Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
33 0x335c…06cd other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$107 (+6%) realized +$112 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$75
politics 27% +$85
sports 15% −$79
tech 2% +$2
world 1% +$2
finance 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 32% -3.6%
≤30d 19 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 32% -3.6%
≤90d 21 -3.6% -12.8% 52% 38% -3.5%
all 22 -3.4% -12.6% 55% 36% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 36% -3.5%
10% -21.0% 27% -12.7%
15% -28.6% 23% -21.1%
20% -35.6% 9% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized+$112
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage112d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $245 $243 −$2 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 72¢ 68¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -16%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 17 $460 +$85 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$17 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$32 -32%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? Apr 08 $5 +$2 +35%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 09 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $50 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 5h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 6h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 6h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $207 6h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $211 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $68 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 38¢ $37 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 80¢ $60 4d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 6d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.57 · official $329.57 (match) · 52 history records