Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:32:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x335d…5cc9 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$358 (-38%) realized −$359 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$123
sports 24% −$220
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-67.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -63.7% -67.2% 22% 22% -56.9%
≤30d 9 -63.7% -67.2% 22% 22% -56.9%
≤90d 9 -63.7% -67.2% 22% 22% -56.9%
all 9 -63.7% -67.2% 22% 22% -56.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.2% 22% -56.9%
10% -70.3% 22% -61.1%
15% -73.2% 22% -64.8%
20% -75.8% 0% -68.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$65 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$359
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$67 -67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $60 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 23¢ $34 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 12h
France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $77 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 40¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.92 · official $235.92 (match) · 17 history records