Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
33 0x335d…8c00 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,112 (+14%) realized +$2,939 · open +$173
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$1,459per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$2,945
other 20% +$286
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +5.5% -4.5% 79% 36% +3.9%
≤30d 14 +5.5% -4.5% 79% 36% +3.9%
≤90d 14 +5.5% -4.5% 79% 36% +3.9%
all 14 +5.5% -4.5% 79% 36% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 36% +3.9%
10% -13.7% 29% -6.1%
15% ← realistic here -22.0% 14% -15.1%
20% -29.7% 7% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$339 vs −$222 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.58 per $1 lost it wins $5.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,392
Realized+$2,939
Unrealized+$173
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,459
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 81¢ 92¢ $1,219 $1,392 +$173 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $1,039 −$17 -2%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $1,149 +$114 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $652 +$53 +8%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $1,831 +$133 +7%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $3,996 +$1,455 +36%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $1,869 +$148 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,774 +$124 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $819 +$973 +119%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 27 $204 −$200 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $948 +$319 +34%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $772 +$132 +17%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $2,658 +$110 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $501 +$161 +32%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $453 −$450 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $1,226 53m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $104 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 78¢ $918 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $301 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $437 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $301 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 96¢ $518 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 70¢ $201 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $216 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 71¢ $720 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 67¢ $528 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 38¢ $25 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 59¢ $145 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $59 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 96¢ $2 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 95¢ $704 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $652 3h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL New York Yankees 77¢ $655 4h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 35¢ $306 4h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 70¢ $1,309 4h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 80¢ $1,525 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 96¢ $2,637 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 94¢ $2,814 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 68¢ $2,928 10h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $1,068 12h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 99¢ $714 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 99¢ $99 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 99¢ $387 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 99¢ $165 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 99¢ $16 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,392.07 · official $1,392.07 (match) · 59 history records