Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x335f…51c4 weather 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,255 (+10%) realized +$1,220 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate71%173W / 70L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$778now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$140
14 days+$168
30 days+$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 37% +$224
world 34% +$1,072
politics 10% −$41
other 9% −$112
sports 7% +$23
crypto 1% +$30
economics 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -30.7% -37.3% 59% 16% -15.9%
≤30d 164 -0.2% -9.7% 71% 28% -7.2%
≤90d 242 +8.8% -1.6% 71% 28% -0.6%
all 243 +8.8% -1.5% 71% 28% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 28% -0.6%
10% -11.0% 19% -10.1%
15% -19.6% 14% -18.8%
20% -27.4% 12% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$778
Realized+$1,220
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses173 / 70
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions21
Markets (closed)243 / 265
History coverage92d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $122 $122 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 40¢ 100¢ $39 $97 +$58 (+149%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? No 98¢ 98¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 100¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+28%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $49 $52 +$3 (+5%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 95¢ 96¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 65¢ 58¢ $49 $44 −$5 (-11%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 98¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $49 $37 −$12 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $31 $22 −$9 (-29%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 77¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29? Yes 25¢ 36¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+46%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 44¢ 13¢ $18 $5 −$13 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 29? Yes 29¢ 55¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+88%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-51%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? Yes 70¢ 29¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 30? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? Jun 29 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? Jun 29 $94 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 28? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $67 +$13 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $203 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$37 +73%
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? Jun 28 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 +$3 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25? Jun 26 $183 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 24? Jun 25 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? Jun 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$37 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 23? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 23? Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 22? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? Jun 23 $142 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 22 $41 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 22 $19 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 22 $99 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $87 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 97¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $73 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 90¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $59 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $205 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $134 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 82¢ $67 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $65 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 92¢ $5 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $14 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $37 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 57¢ $51 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $777.65 · official $776.53 (match) · 1527 history records