Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3360…da4b sports 412 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$279 (-1%) realized −$279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%405W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$193
7 days−$467
14 days−$457
30 days−$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$459
other 1% $0
crypto 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -2.7% -12.0% 97% 2% -13.7%
≤30d 310 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 411 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 1% -10.4%
all 411 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -10.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$109 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses405 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)411 / 412
History coverage50d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Fruhvirtova (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jones 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: McNally (-1.5) vs Tjen (+1.5) Jun 23 $121 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Angelini (-1.5) vs Piraino (+1.5) Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Piraino (-1.5) vs Angelini (+1.5) Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Janice Tjen vs. Caty McNally: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamish Stewart Jun 23 $129 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Papoe (-1.5) vs Meza (+1.5) Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Manas (-1.5) vs Vasa (+1.5) Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Vasa (-1.5) vs Manas (+1.5) Jun 23 $66 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-9.5) vs Infinite (+ Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Set Handicap: Blancaneaux (-1.5) vs Berkieta (+1.5) Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs 4M (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A J Jun 23 $236 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Gr Jun 23 $203 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl Jun 22 $392 +$4 +1%
Florent Bax vs. Chris Rodesch: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $235 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Kasatkina (-1.5) vs Kessler (+1.5) Jun 22 $57 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Herbert (-1.5) vs Jubb (+1.5) Jun 22 $109 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Silva (-1.5) vs Dodig (+1.5) Jun 22 $46 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Tseng vs Heide Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Tobon vs. Krumich: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Begu (-1.5) vs Williams (+1.5) Jun 22 $125 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Bertola (-1.5) vs Draxl (+1.5) Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Rocha (-1.5) vs Mejia (+1.5) Jun 22 $94 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: PSN.A (-1.5) vs KUUSAMO.gg (+1.5) Jun 22 $184 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Ouden vs Zhou Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) Jun 22 $235 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Frech (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5) Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $234 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $234 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $234 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5) Jun 21 $500 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Siniakova (-1.5) vs Samsonova (+1.5) Jun 21 $67 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Erjavec (-1.5) vs Tomljanovic (+1.5) Jun 21 $45 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Aksu (-1.5) vs Vidmanova (+1.5) Jun 21 $90 $0 +0%
Spencer Steer: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $414 +$47 +11%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $218 $0 +0%
CJ Abrams: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 20 $644 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou Jun 19 $218 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-12.5) vs SHISHKA (+12.5) Jun 19 $327 −$327 -100%
Map Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) Jun 19 $327 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $327 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $327 $0 +0%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) Jun 18 $327 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Fruhvirtova (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) BUY Jones 100¢ $4 1h
Set Handicap: Piraino (-1.5) vs Angelini (+1.5) BUY Angelini 100¢ $15 1h
Set Handicap: Angelini (-1.5) vs Piraino (+1.5) BUY Piraino 100¢ $51 1h
Set Handicap: McNally (-1.5) vs Tjen (+1.5) BUY Tjen 100¢ $86 1h
Set Handicap: McNally (-1.5) vs Tjen (+1.5) BUY Tjen 100¢ $35 1h
Janice Tjen vs. Caty McNally: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $3 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamish Stewart BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 100¢ $35 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamish Stewart BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 100¢ $71 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamish Stewart BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 100¢ $11 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamish Stewart BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 100¢ $12 3h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-9.5) vs Infinite (+ BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 99¢ $200 3h
Set Handicap: Vasa (-1.5) vs Manas (+1.5) BUY Manas 100¢ $66 4h
Set Handicap: Manas (-1.5) vs Vasa (+1.5) BUY Vasa 100¢ $20 4h
Set Handicap: Papoe (-1.5) vs Meza (+1.5) BUY Meza 100¢ $23 4h
Set Handicap: Blancaneaux (-1.5) vs Berkieta (+1.5) BUY Berkieta 100¢ $13 5h
Set Handicap: Blancaneaux (-1.5) vs Berkieta (+1.5) BUY Berkieta 100¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs 4M (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A J BUY QUINTESSÊNCIA 100¢ $106 14h
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Gr BUY ODDIK 100¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Gr BUY ODDIK 100¢ $193 14h
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs 4M (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A J BUY QUINTESSÊNCIA 100¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs 4M (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A J BUY QUINTESSÊNCIA 100¢ $128 15h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl BUY WRAITH PCIFIC 99¢ $186 19h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl BUY WRAITH PCIFIC 99¢ $50 19h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl BUY WRAITH PCIFIC 99¢ $157 19h
Set Handicap: Kasatkina (-1.5) vs Kessler (+1.5) BUY Kessler 100¢ $57 20h
Set Handicap: Herbert (-1.5) vs Jubb (+1.5) BUY Jubb 100¢ $16 20h
Set Handicap: Herbert (-1.5) vs Jubb (+1.5) BUY Jubb 100¢ $93 20h
Set Handicap: Bertola (-1.5) vs Draxl (+1.5) BUY Draxl 100¢ $1 20h
Set Handicap: Silva (-1.5) vs Dodig (+1.5) BUY Dodig 100¢ $46 20h
Set Handicap: Begu (-1.5) vs Williams (+1.5) BUY Williams 100¢ $125 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.57 · official $3.84 (match) · 1033 history records