Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
33 0x3362…a769 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$805 (-11%) realized −$832 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$896
7 days−$885
14 days−$885
30 days−$885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$252
other 48% −$1,081
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +2.2% -7.6% 30% 30% -21.3%
≤30d 43 +2.2% -7.6% 30% 30% -21.3%
≤90d 43 +2.2% -7.6% 30% 30% -21.3%
all 46 +2.5% -7.2% 30% 30% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 30% -20.5%
10% -16.1% 28% -28.1%
15% -24.2% 28% -35.0%
20% -31.7% 20% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$83 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$832
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage248d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $512 +$492 +96%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $410 −$400 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $522 −$510 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 +$161 +980%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $179 +$102 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $153 +$73 +48%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3,010 +$323 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$139 +1352%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $39 +$21 +54%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 +$13 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $51 −$34 -66%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$60 +152%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $140 −$140 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $100 +$178 +178%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $30 −$8 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 41¢ $366 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 47¢ $93 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 50¢ $546 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $410 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 19¢ $512 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 18h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 34h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 34h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $152 34h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 42h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.67 · official $226.67 (match) · 75 history records