Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:33:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3366…339c weather 945 markets active 3h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-2%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate84%793W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% −$9
crypto 36% −$38
politics 1% −$2
economics 0% +$1
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 192 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 940 -2.6% -11.8% 84% 10% -11.5%
all 943 -2.7% -11.9% 84% 10% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 10% -11.8%
10% -20.4% 6% -20.3%
15% -28.1% 3% -28.0%
20% -35.1% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses793 / 150
Open positions2
Markets (closed)943 / 945
History coverage128d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 943 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 99¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $3 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.53 · official $4.53 (match) · 2267 history records