Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:19:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

33 0x3367…e5dc other 14 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,320 (-59%) realized −$1,295 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip

Net edge-67%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate8%1W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$159per market

Trades / day6.6pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-65.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-61.8%	-65.4%	8%	0%	-70.3%
≤30d	13	-61.8%	-65.4%	8%	0%	-70.3%
≤90d	13	-61.8%	-65.4%	8%	0%	-70.3%
all	13	-61.8%	-65.4%	8%	0%	-70.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-65.4%	0%	-70.3%
10%	-68.7%	0%	-73.1%
15%	-71.8%	0%	-75.7%
20%	-74.5%	0%	-78.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -62% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -78% → late -48% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$120 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized−$1,295

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)8%

Wins / losses1 / 12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 14

History coverage4d

Avg bet$159

Trades / day6.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$50	$25	−$25 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Jun 20	$52	$0	+1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Jun 18	$83	−$56	-67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$21	−$1	-5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$21	−$20	-97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$257	−$71	-28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Jun 18	$32	−$1	-4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	Jun 18	$1,154	−$770	-67%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	Jun 18	$209	−$209	-100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 18	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	Jun 17	$14	$0	-1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Jun 17	$197	−$188	-95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$52	2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	SELL Yes	5¢	$53	2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	5¢	$52	3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	6¢	$20	39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	14¢	$19	39h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$21	40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	40h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	SELL Yes	2¢	$23	40h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	42h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	5¢	$63	44h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$185	44h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	SELL Yes	50¢	$16	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	SELL No	49¢	$15	2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$15	2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	SELL No	93¢	$14	2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	2¢	$115	2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	5¢	$82	2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$14	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$257	2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	BUY Yes	20¢	$386	2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	SELL Yes	5¢	$385	3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$768	3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$209	3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.90 · official $24.90 (match) · 33 history records