Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:14:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x336b…1233 sports 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (190 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14,944 (+2%) realized +$7,980 · open +$6,964
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%56W / 73L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$6,559per market
Trades / day190.5pace
Fees−$10,545est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$20,332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$88,250
other 9% +$25,718
crypto 2% +$11,511
politics 0% $0
world 0% +$2
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (190 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -16.9% -24.8% 32% 31% -24.1%
≤30d 129 +3.6% -6.3% 43% 39% -5.1%
≤90d 129 +3.6% -6.3% 43% 39% -5.1%
all 129 +3.6% -6.3% 43% 39% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover190.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 39% -5.1%
10% -15.2% 36% -14.2%
15% ← realistic here -23.4% 30% -22.5%
20% -30.9% 26% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$6,580) neutral
Persistence
early +43% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
27.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,155 vs −$3,605 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$20,332
Realized+$7,980
Unrealized+$6,964
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses56 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$10,545
Open positions32
Markets (closed)129 / 103
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$6,559
Trades / day190.5
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 43¢ 100¢ $3,010 $6,996 +$3,986 (+132%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 49¢ 76¢ $3,373 $5,191 +$1,818 (+54%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 42¢ $2,465 $3,612 +$1,147 (+47%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals No 73¢ 73¢ $2,078 $2,078 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 29¢ 50¢ $467 $814 +$346 (+74%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 42¢ 40¢ $344 $328 −$16 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $284 $282 −$3 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $216 $212 −$4 (-2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $240 $195 −$45 (-19%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $490 $178 −$312 (-64%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $101 $142 +$41 (+41%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 89¢ $137 $135 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $74 $70 −$4 (-5%)
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals No 60¢ 83¢ $24 $33 +$9 (+39%)
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? No 76¢ 74¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $13 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 88¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+106%)
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 43¢ 55¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+28%)
Will Czechia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 50¢ 54¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the World Cup? No 79¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+20%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Ruud vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 15 $851 −$851 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Jun 15 $14,555 −$14,555 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 15 $1,200 −$1,708 -142%
Brooksby vs. Ruud: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $460 −$460 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $0 +$6 +1347%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Perricard (+2.5) Jun 15 $166 −$166 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $219 −$480 -219%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva Jun 15 $2,099 −$2,099 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverev Jun 15 $3,300 −$3,300 -100%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 15 $1,675 −$1,675 -100%
Casper Ruud vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $232 −$232 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 15 $402 −$402 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Jun 15 $1,257 −$1,257 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 15 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud Jun 15 $5,555 −$4,982 -90%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-2.5) vs Navone (+2.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Gill vs Jacquet Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik Jun 15 $11,403 −$11,403 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev Jun 15 $9,251 −$9,251 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 15 $1,459 −$1,461 -100%
Navone vs. Mensik: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton Jun 15 $355 −$355 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 15 $480 −$480 -100%
Jenson Brooksby vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik Jun 15 $2,240 −$2,240 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $10,650 −$10,650 -100%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Navone (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ruud vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Ignacio Buse Jun 15 $625 −$625 -100%
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 15 $1,038 −$1,038 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $9,077 −$8,666 -96%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $1,097 −$1,097 -100%
Ruud vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Mariano Navone vs. Jakub Mensik: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Jun 15 $7,800 −$7,800 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4,888 +$1,089 +22%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $1,047 +$171 +16%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4,513 +$4,995 +111%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2,686 +$4,125 +154%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 15 $6 +$2 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $1,837 0m
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $14 4m
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $5 6m
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $3 7m
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $54 7m
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $3 9m
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $3 9m
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $14 10m
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $68 11m
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $81 12m
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $6 18m
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 30m
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $168 32m
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $65 42m
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $85 42m
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $4 43m
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $13 51m
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $7 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $6 1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY No 81¢ $21 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $24 1h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $2 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $363 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $5 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $6 1h
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $4,585 1h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $24 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,331.98 · official $20,332.49 (match) · 3500 history records