Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:10:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x336c…af5d other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$242 (-15%) realized −$242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%29W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$128
sports 8% −$34
crypto 7% −$74
politics 2% −$19
tech 1% +$9
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -45.5% -50.7% 13% 13% -23.7%
≤30d 39 -45.5% -50.7% 13% 13% -23.7%
≤90d 39 -45.5% -50.7% 13% 13% -23.7%
all 112 -27.5% -34.4% 26% 25% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 25% -25.7%
10% -40.7% 25% -32.8%
15% -46.4% 25% -39.3%
20% -51.7% 21% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$11 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses29 / 83
Open positions15
Markets (closed)112 / 127
History coverage249d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $24 $30 +$6 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-21%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 29¢ 17¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 +$45 +873%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $73 +$31 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$26 +503%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $110 −$110 -100%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 31 $5 +$12 +245%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 16 $30 +$27 +89%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02? Dec 03 $35 +$23 +66%
Will Everton win on 2025-12-02? Dec 03 $20 +$54 +270%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30? Dec 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.02 · official $225.08 (match) · 175 history records