Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
33 0x3371…9f90 sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,584 (+23%) realized +$3,593 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$511per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$974
7 days+$974
14 days+$974
30 days+$974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +79.4% +62.3% 100% 100% +62.3%
≤30d 1 +79.4% +62.3% 100% 100% +62.3%
≤90d 6 +36.5% +23.5% 83% 83% +30.8%
all 29 -10.3% -18.8% 52% 52% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 52% +13.0%
10% -26.6% 52% +2.2%
15% -33.7% 48% -7.7%
20% -40.2% 38% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$779) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -58% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$531 vs −$316 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$1,133
Realized+$3,593
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage234d
Avg bet$511
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A 9INE 48¢ 48¢ $1,142 $1,133 −$9 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $1,226 +$974 +79%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Zsombor Piros Apr 21 $956 +$544 +57%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Francesco Maestrel Apr 21 $607 +$393 +65%
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur Apr 20 $638 +$292 +46%
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils Apr 18 $335 +$242 +72%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 18 $532 −$532 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs 9INE (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group A Mar 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 13 $1,010 +$2,474 +245%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Mar 13 $623 +$506 +81%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pla Mar 13 $1,443 +$1,090 +76%
BNP Paribas Open: Arthur Fils vs Alexander Zverev Mar 13 $1,141 +$700 +61%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs OG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier Pla Feb 15 $108 −$108 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 11 $1,187 −$1,187 -100%
Mavericks vs. Suns Feb 11 $888 +$312 +35%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Feb 10 $5 +$4 +96%
Celtics vs. Jazz Dec 31 $39 +$16 +41%
Bucks vs. Pacers Dec 24 $653 −$653 -100%
Toledo vs. Louisville Dec 24 $314 −$314 -100%
Magic vs. Warriors Dec 23 $627 +$323 +52%
Canucks vs. Flyers Dec 23 $779 −$779 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers Dec 21 $205 −$205 -100%
Kraken vs. Sharks Dec 21 $405 −$405 -100%
New Mexico vs. UNLV Dec 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Fresno State vs. Boise State Dec 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Kings vs. Bucks Dec 03 $78 −$78 -100%
Arizona State vs. Iowa State Dec 03 $108 −$108 -100%
Kennesaw State vs. Liberty Nov 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Bulls vs. Knicks Nov 03 $89 +$38 +43%
Grizzlies vs. Raptors Nov 03 $102 +$55 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $18 1m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $9 9m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $9 9m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $49 10m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $103 17m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $6 35m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $104 51m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $9 56m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $91 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $522 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $79 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $35 1h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Fabian Marozsan 55¢ $1,226 26h
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Zsombor Piros BUY Dino Prizmic 63¢ $11 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Zsombor Piros BUY Dino Prizmic 63¢ $945 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Francesco Maestrel BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 60¢ $607 63d
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 69¢ $45 64d
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 68¢ $58 64d
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 68¢ $21 64d
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 68¢ $8 64d
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 68¢ $13 64d
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 68¢ $5 64d
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 68¢ $6 64d
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 68¢ $481 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,133.35 · official $1,133.35 (match) · 239 history records