Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:32:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3372…1914 crypto 1247 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$9,024 (-47%) realized −$9,024 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%604W / 641L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day81.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$560
politics 26% +$2,434
sports 6% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -26.2% -33.3% 18% 12% -32.4%
≤30d 405 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 43% +5.1%
≤90d 1245 -4.1% -13.3% 49% 41% -1.3%
all 1245 -4.1% -13.3% 49% 41% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 41% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 27% -10.7%
15% -29.2% 15% -19.4%
20% -36.1% 7% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$9,024
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses604 / 641
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1245 / 1247
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day81.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ 56¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 65¢ 68¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $30 −$5 -17%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $52 −$8 -15%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $48 −$5 -11%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $30 −$8 -25%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $30 −$4 -12%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $30 −$11 -35%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $30 +$18 +60%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $30 −$8 -28%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $30 −$2 -7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $30 −$5 -18%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $30 −$13 -43%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $30 +$2 +6%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $30 −$1 -4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $30 −$4 -15%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $37 −$1 -3%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $16 +$1 +9%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $10 −$1 -11%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $72 −$59 -82%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $10 −$6 -55%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $16 −$10 -60%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $10 −$4 -35%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $10 −$2 -21%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $16 −$5 -31%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $10 −$4 -41%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $10 +$8 +83%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $17 −$13 -76%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$15 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$13 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ $4 7m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ $5 8m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 41¢ $2 17m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 41¢ $2 18m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $3 23m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $4 25m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $3 25m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ $10 26m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $7 28m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $3 29m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $4 30m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $2 31m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $0 32m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $5 32m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 48¢ $5 32m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $14 32m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $3 32m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 77¢ $15 33m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 49¢ $5 35m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $4 36m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $30 37m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 43¢ $4 38m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $5 39m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 43¢ $3 39m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $2 39m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $2 39m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 43¢ $12 40m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $18 40m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 62¢ $8 41m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 59¢ $18 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.03 · official $14.03 (match) · 3500 history records