Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3373…3716 world 437 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$226 (-2%) realized −$136 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate49%232W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day108.6pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$374
7 days−$252
14 days−$210
30 days−$588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$117
politics 20% +$205
sports 10% −$72
other 10% −$75
crypto 2% +$64
tech 2% −$24
finance 1% −$12
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 +76.3% +59.5% 41% 22% -11.4%
≤30d 460 +41.3% +27.9% 48% 20% -12.1%
≤90d 473 +41.1% +27.6% 49% 20% -10.2%
all 473 +41.1% +27.6% 49% 20% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.6% 20% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here +15.4% 13% -18.8%
15% +4.3% 10% -26.6%
20% -6.0% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +72% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$1,245
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses232 / 241
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions24
Markets (closed)473 / 437
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day108.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 473 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $436 $501 +$66 (+15%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 57¢ 48¢ $357 $299 −$58 (-16%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 88¢ $268 $295 +$27 (+10%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 82¢ 99¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+21%)
Will Trump Airport become law this year? Yes 48¢ 8¢ $100 $17 −$83 (-83%)
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 87¢ 97¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+11%)
Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man? No 90¢ 80¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Will Starmer say "Scotland" during the next PMQ? Yes 96¢ 52¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-46%)
Haiti elections delayed again? No 54¢ 23¢ $19 $8 −$11 (-57%)
Will Trump say "Bond" in June? Yes 96¢ 75¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will Maluma perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 86¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 87¢ 85¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes 51¢ 73¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+43%)
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? Yes 41¢ 2¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-95%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 80¢ 38¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 28¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 55¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 7¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Jun 20 $0 −$2 -2635%
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" at The Villages on May Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by May 31, 2026? Jun 20 $12 −$14 -118%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? Jun 20 $0 −$1 -595%
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $0 $0 +270%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 12? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 20 $0 +$3 +1543%
Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $0 +$1 +659%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? Jun 20 $0 −$2 -5189%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-02? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? Jun 20 $0 −$17 -5216%
Will Rare Earths Americas' market cap be between $300M and $400M at ma Jun 20 $4 −$3 -77%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week? Jun 20 $21 −$39 -189%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -54%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5) Jun 20 $0 −$7 -10956%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit? Jun 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? Jun 20 $0 −$9 -13095%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 20 $0 −$13 -7292%
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-05-03? Jun 20 $11 −$18 -168%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 20 $0 −$1 -732%
Carrarese Calcio vs. Cesena FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $0 −$3 -1506%
Will SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -106%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $0 +$2 +2760%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 20 $0 −$2 -1469%
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-04-30? Jun 20 $0 $0 +189%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-09? Jun 20 $0 −$2 -1855%
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 20 $0 −$1 -718%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-30? Jun 20 $0 −$7 -3021%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $0 +$1 +3230%
Will Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $0 +$3 +3430%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Jun 20 $0 −$2 -2290%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-12? Jun 20 $0 −$3 -21885%
Trump kiss by May 31? Jun 20 $1 −$23 -3604%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-03? Jun 20 $3 −$14 -524%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 20 $0 −$8 -2188%
Will Rare Earths Americas' market cap be at least $500M at market clos Jun 20 $0 +$1 +902%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$6 -297%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $0 −$3 -2527%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 20 $0 −$1 -113%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 20 $0 $0 +91%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $2 +$3 +123%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-30? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Jun 20 $0 −$1 -2256%
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-05-01? Jun 20 $0 $0 +564%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $0 +$4 +9238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12m
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $9 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $2 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $4 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $15 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $15 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $15 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $7 6h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 92¢ $0 6h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 92¢ $29 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $14 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $14 6h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 7h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $8 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $9 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $9 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $7 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $7 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $10 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $9 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $10 8h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 8h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 8h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $3 8h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $14 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $15 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,244.94 · official $1,244.78 (match) · 3500 history records