Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3376…69a4 sports 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%19W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$3
sports 29% −$1
politics 16% −$3
crypto 8% −$1
economics 7% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 3% $0
world 2% $0
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 3 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 4 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -11.5%
all 150 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses19 / 131
Open positions0
Markets (closed)150 / 150
History coverage158d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 150 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 10 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 15 $60 −$2 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 14 $302 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 14 $213 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? Feb 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $81 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 09 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 09 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 09 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 09 $185 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 09 $98 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 09 $256 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 09 $60 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 09 $140 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $48 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $28 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $29 8d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $55 21d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $56 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 89¢ $58 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 92¢ $60 34d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $59 124d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $59 124d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $60 124d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $60 124d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol SELL No 94¢ $44 124d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol BUY No 95¢ $44 124d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $58 124d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $58 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $56 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $57 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? SELL No 98¢ $53 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $53 124d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 124d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 124d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $61 124d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $61 124d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $59 124d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $59 124d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 124d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 97¢ $34 124d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 98¢ $34 124d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 594 history records