Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
33 0x337a…8f18 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$127 (+24%) realized +$128 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$79
crypto 12% +$43
world 2% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.8% -3.4% 70% 60% +19.7%
≤30d 10 +6.8% -3.4% 70% 60% +19.7%
≤90d 10 +6.8% -3.4% 70% 60% +19.7%
all 10 +6.8% -3.4% 70% 60% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 60% +19.7%
10% -12.6% 60% +8.2%
15% -21.1% 60% -2.2%
20% -28.8% 30% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$14 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.88 per $1 lost it wins $3.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $133 +$66 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$43 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 +$7 +49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$6 +64%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $29 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $104 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $1 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $22 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $14 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $22 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.78 · official $137.87 (match) · 22 history records