Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
33 0x337a…62db sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,551 (+25%) realized +$1,564 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,529
other 6% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +21.6% +10.0% 56% 53% +15.5%
≤30d 34 +21.6% +10.0% 56% 53% +15.5%
≤90d 34 +21.6% +10.0% 56% 53% +15.5%
all 34 +21.6% +10.0% 56% 53% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.0% 53% +15.5%
10% -0.5% 53% +4.4%
15% -10.1% 53% -5.6%
20% -19.0% 50% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$114 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$587
Realized+$1,564
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage5d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 45¢ 44¢ $300 $290 −$10 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $304 +$251 +83%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $305 +$426 +140%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $483 +$312 +65%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $407 +$14 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $543 +$346 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $507 −$500 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $153 +$288 +188%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 −$82 -81%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $109 +$71 +65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$212 +414%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $119 +$81 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $304 +$235 +77%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $71 +$118 +165%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $303 +$120 +40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$71 -70%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$50 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$72 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $71 +$99 +140%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$7 -7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $71 +$52 +73%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $176 +$291 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $305 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $304 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $304 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $305 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 47¢ $420 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $483 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $407 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $543 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $507 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $203 25h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $203 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 15¢ $17 38h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $153 39h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $101 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 19¢ $51 40h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $109 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $203 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $71 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $102 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $303 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $102 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $101 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $72 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $587.46 · official $587.46 (match) · 59 history records