Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x337a…913a economics 17 markets active 4d ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$598per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 40% −$4
economics 40% $0
world 20% −$2
crypto 0% $0
other 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 36% 0% -9.6%
all 16 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage97d
Avg bet$598
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Apr 29 $2,006 −$2 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 28 $2,001 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 28 $1,995 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 27 $2,016 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 27 $1,993 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13? Mar 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 08 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $9 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $9 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $3 6d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $12 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $15 30d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $10 39d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $12 41d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,004 49d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,006 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $2,001 50d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $2,001 50d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,993 50d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,995 51d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,014 51d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,016 51d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $1,993 51d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $1,993 52d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? SELL No 100¢ $7 55d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $11 58d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 60d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 64d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $26 67d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $26 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 99¢ $14 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 75d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $24 81d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $2 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13? BUY No 100¢ $2 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $21 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.47 · official $1.47 (match) · 37 history records