Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

33 0x337b…2ff5 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$471 (-53%) realized −$470 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$221per market

Trades / day4.3pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-40.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-34.4%	-40.6%	33%	33%	-66.4%
≤30d	3	-34.4%	-40.6%	33%	33%	-66.4%
≤90d	3	-34.4%	-40.6%	33%	33%	-66.4%
all	3	-34.4%	-40.6%	33%	33%	-66.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-40.6%	33%	-66.4%
10%	-46.3%	33%	-69.6%
15%	-51.5%	33%	-72.5%
20%	-56.2%	0%	-75.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -63% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -34% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$39 vs −$259 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.08 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$119

Realized−$470

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$221

Trades / day4.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$120	$119	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$82	+$39	+48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$399	−$317	-80%
Spain leading at halftime?	Jun 15	$280	−$200	-71%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$121	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$82	23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	18¢	$82	44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	82¢	$80	45h
Spain leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	22¢	$80	45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	86¢	$319	46h
Spain leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	73¢	$54	46h
Spain leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	75¢	$227	46h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.34 · official $119.34 (match) · 9 history records