Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x337d…50b6 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$499per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$219
14 days−$219
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% +$36
other 27% −$211
crypto 22% +$2
world 15% +$1
tech 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -19.5% -27.2% 50% 0% -27.2%
≤30d 5 -7.7% -16.5% 80% 0% -16.7%
≤90d 13 -2.4% -11.7% 92% 0% -12.0%
all 14 -2.2% -11.5% 93% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -11.8%
10% -20.0% 0% -20.2%
15% -27.7% 0% -27.9%
20% -34.8% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$219 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage97d
Avg bet$499
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $341 $348 +$7 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $561 −$219 -39%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 31? Jun 01 $525 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 27 $561 +$1 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May May 19 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 8? May 09 $560 +$1 +0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $259 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13 Apr 22 $559 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $553 +$5 +1%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 03 $553 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $552 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $525 +$28 +5%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 13 $522 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.71 · official $347.71 (match) · 29 history records