Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3389…d3b9 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$150 (-30%) realized −$149 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$92
14 days−$165
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$13
other 26% −$124
sports 25% −$41
crypto 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-74.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 -77.6% -79.8% 7% 7% -68.2%
≤90d 14 -77.6% -79.8% 7% 7% -68.2%
all 15 -72.0% -74.7% 13% 7% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.7% 7% -38.7%
10% -77.1% 7% -44.6%
15% -79.3% 7% -49.9%
20% -81.3% 7% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -82% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$16 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$149
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage130d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $42 $42 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$6 -31%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $31 +$38 +124%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $199 +$13 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $43 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Jordan 2¢ $1 44h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Jordan 31¢ $20 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 23¢ $14 7d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $20 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 32¢ $20 7d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 44¢ $31 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 10d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $10 11d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 11d
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $199 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.77 · official $41.77 (match) · 21 history records