Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x338c…aa9b sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$71 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$294
14 days−$23
30 days+$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$194
other 31% +$277
world 14% −$430
crypto 2% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 13 -5.6% -14.6% 31% 31% +15.8%
≤90d 14 -12.4% -20.7% 29% 29% +15.2%
all 32 -19.2% -26.9% 28% 25% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 25% -10.7%
10% -33.9% 22% -19.3%
15% -40.3% 22% -27.1%
20% -46.1% 22% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$69 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$700
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)32 / 37
History coverage120d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $289 $378 +$89 (+31%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 33¢ 34¢ $177 $180 +$3 (+2%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $90 $132 +$42 (+47%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs Paris Gentle Mates 40¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 26 $111 −$109 -98%
Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $169 −$165 -98%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 19 $8 +$2 +19%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 17 $97 +$103 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $200 +$177 +88%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $182 −$178 -98%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO7) - Call of Duty Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $92 −$92 -100%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 05 $152 −$152 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $133 +$817 +614%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Mar 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winne Mar 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $51 +$124 +244%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Mar 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call o Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Mar 22 $105 +$59 +56%
Call of Duty: Telluride Bush Gaming vs Las Vegas Falcons (BO5) - Call Mar 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Mar 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 18 $25 +$17 +65%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $15 −$15 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $51 +$249 +488%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Mar 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Paris Gentle Mates 40¢ $81 1h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 47¢ $111 2d
Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $20 5d
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $169 5d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Cloud9 New York 10¢ $10 8d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty SELL Boston Breach 15¢ $10 8d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Boston Breach 12¢ $8 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $101 11d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $97 12d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 33¢ $181 12d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $182 14d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO7) - Call of Duty BUY OpTic Texas 37¢ $15 20d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 7¢ $93 23d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 11¢ $22 23d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY Yes 42¢ $92 23d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $195 28d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 52¢ $200 28d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Paris Gentle Mates 51¢ $152 28d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $19 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $20 92d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 50¢ $60 92d
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY Riyadh Falcons 1¢ $1 92d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winne BUY Paris Gentle Mates 53¢ $74 97d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $174 97d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 98d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S BUY Toronto KOI 28¢ $13 98d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call o BUY Paris Gentle Mates 47¢ $100 98d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 64¢ $105 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $7 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.72 · official $699.72 (match) · 80 history records