Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x338d…6fd4 crypto 285 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$105 (+1%) realized −$248 · open +$353
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%122W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$967
7 days+$831
14 days+$286
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$822
sports 27% +$849
crypto 23% +$125
politics 1% +$89
world 0% −$14
economics 0% −$9
finance 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +5.6% -4.5% 35% 24% +6.4%
≤30d 271 -11.5% -19.9% 43% 34% -10.5%
≤90d 284 -11.3% -19.8% 43% 34% -10.8%
all 284 -11.3% -19.8% 43% 34% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 34% -10.8%
10% -27.4% 25% -19.4%
15% -34.5% 20% -27.1%
20% -40.9% 17% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$19 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$2,319
Realized−$248
Unrealized+$353
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses122 / 162
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)284 / 285
History coverage53d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $1,966 $2,319 +$353 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $1,883 +$95 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1,040 +$858 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $1,012 +$35 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 17? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $40 −$20 -48%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$24 +234%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $453 −$447 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 18? Jun 18 $63 +$412 +655%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? Jun 18 $53 −$4 -7%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $28 −$9 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $11 −$6 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $23 +$25 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $19 −$13 -66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $42 +$38 +91%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $12 +$4 +36%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $119 −$116 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$72 +685%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 +$7 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $56 −$10 -17%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $415 +$68 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$13 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$23 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,981 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,978 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $1,883 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $10 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,898 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $620 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $420 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,047 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,012 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 6d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 6d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 6d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $453 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $474 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $62 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $20 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $49 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 0¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,319.06 · official $2,321.69 (match) · 754 history records