Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3391…8420 crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,632 (-23%) realized −$1,632 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%35W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$1,280
other 5% −$240
world 2% −$21
politics 1% −$38
finance 0% −$20
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +23.0% +11.3% 50% 50% -14.4%
≤30d 12 +23.0% +11.3% 50% 50% -14.4%
≤90d 12 +23.0% +11.3% 50% 50% -14.4%
all 77 -24.5% -31.7% 45% 34% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 34% -30.4%
10% -38.2% 29% -37.0%
15% -44.2% 23% -43.1%
20% -49.7% 14% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$55 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,632
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses35 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage260d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$11 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +76%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $53 −$18 -33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $57 −$3 -6%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Feb 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 08 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 8? Jan 08 $388 −$208 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $400 −$226 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 8? Jan 08 $384 +$110 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 2PM ET Jan 07 $338 −$178 -53%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 7? Jan 07 $251 +$93 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 7? Jan 07 $942 −$25 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 8AM ET Jan 07 $71 +$38 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 1AM ET Jan 07 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12AM ET Jan 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by January 9? Jan 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 7? Jan 06 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12PM ET Jan 06 $100 +$81 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 11AM ET Jan 06 $336 +$79 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 7? Jan 06 $127 +$13 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6? Jan 06 $342 −$111 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 6? Jan 06 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 6? Jan 06 $292 +$19 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 1AM ET Jan 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 12AM ET Jan 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 3PM ET Jan 05 $41 +$19 +46%
XRP Up or Down - January 5, 2PM ET Jan 05 $100 +$17 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $241 +$47 +20%
XRP Up or Down - January 5, 12PM ET Jan 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 12PM ET Jan 05 $40 +$20 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $168 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8AM ET Jan 05 $40 +$20 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 6AM ET Jan 05 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 9AM ET Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 7PM ET Jan 03 $30 −$3 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 7PM ET Jan 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 6PM ET Jan 02 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 2, 6PM ET Jan 02 $28 +$12 +43%
XRP Up or Down - January 2, 5PM ET Jan 02 $55 −$50 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 5PM ET Jan 02 $82 +$9 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 4PM ET Jan 02 $50 +$5 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $54 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $57 24h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 163d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 8? BUY Yes 90¢ $55 163d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 8? SELL No 16¢ $55 163d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 8? BUY No 67¢ $121 164d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 8? BUY No 65¢ $40 164d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 8? BUY No 64¢ $20 164d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 8? BUY No 57¢ $20 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 261 history records