Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x339a…3fd1 other 14 markets active 3d ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-48%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$26
other 26% −$4
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -32.5% -39.0% 12% 12% -64.5%
≤30d 8 -32.5% -39.0% 12% 12% -64.5%
≤90d 8 -32.5% -39.0% 12% 12% -64.5%
all 8 -32.5% -39.0% 12% 12% -64.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 12% -64.5%
10% -44.8% 12% -67.9%
15% -50.1% 12% -71.0%
20% -55.0% 0% -73.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $40 −$26 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.94 · official $8.94 (match) · 22 history records