Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

33 0x339b…6f01 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$39 (+5%) realized +$27 · open +$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%10W / 11L

Drawdown89%max

Avg bet$31per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit26%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$65

7 days+$35

14 days+$24

30 days+$24

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-5.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+7.7%	-2.5%	44%	44%	-4.3%
≤30d	21	+4.8%	-5.2%	48%	48%	-6.2%
≤90d	21	+4.8%	-5.2%	48%	48%	-6.2%
all	21	+4.8%	-5.2%	48%	48%	-6.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.2%	48%	-6.2%
10%	-14.3%	48%	-15.1%
15%	-22.6%	43%	-23.3%
20%	-30.1%	33%	-30.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +21% → late -10% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$19 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.12 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized+$27

Unrealized+$12

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses10 / 11

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage14d

Avg bet$31

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown89%

Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	60¢	74¢	$50	$62	+$12 (+24%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	Jun 27	$15	−$7	-46%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$20	+$13	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 26	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$61	−$60	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$86	−$85	-99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$71	+$34	+48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20	+$24	+119%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 22	$10	−$1	-8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$50	−$2	-3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$10	−$1	-13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$121	+$36	+30%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$53	+$73	+138%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$20	−$5	-27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$15	+$11	+73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$23	+$23	+100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$15	−$7	-49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	+$6	+62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1	+$1	+73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$18	+$8	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	72¢	$10	31m
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	SELL Yes	19¢	$8	32m
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$15	35m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	57¢	$15	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	15h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$20	15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	64¢	$61	38h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Son Heungmi	BUY	34¢	$15	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	60¢	$86	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	67¢	$71	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	27¢	$9	4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	67¢	$49	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	11¢	$9	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	86¢	$70	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	76¢	$2	5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	54¢	$20	5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$20	5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	63¢	$15	5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	85¢	$20	6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$15	6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	72¢	$3	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.06 · official $62.06 (match) · 49 history records